Sunday, April 22, 2012

Election Prediction Fun #2

Now this is more to show the uselessness of public opinion polls and seat projections.  I will post the final polling results and seat projections from numerous sources, all of which were published here except the Forum poll which was published here.

First off, the popular vote percentages.

Party Leger Think HQ Campaign Abacus Forum Average
Wildrose 42 41 41 41 41 41.2
PC 36 33 34 31 32 33.2
NDP 10 11 11 13 13 11.6
Lib 9 11 11 12 10 10.6
Other 3 4 3 3 4 3.4

Now, for the even more shaky art of seat projections.  These come from Forum, Threehundredeight, and Daveberta average pool responses.

Party Forum THE Daveberta Average
Wildrose 62 45 42 49
PC 19 37 37 32
NDP 4 4 4 5
Lib 2 1 3 1
Other 0 0 1 0 

Using the Hill & Knowlton Election Seat predictor tool, I've arrived at my own seat projections using the various poll firms voting intention data both on a whole Alberta basis and a regional basis.  Both of these methods yield a slim Wildrose majority, varying in composition based on full province data or regional data.

Full province data yields the following:
Wildrose 47
PC 32
Other 0

Regional Data yields the following:
Wildrose 46
PC 29
NDP 10
Lib 2

However, of course, all of this information is based on decided voters.  The undecided will determine the fate of our province.  The H&K election predictor allows you to see the impact of votes swinging from one camp to another.  Let's evaluate a few scenarios based on province-wide data.

1.  Half of Liberal leaning voters vote PC to stop a Wildrose government from forming
Minority Wildrose government with 43 seats, PC 37, NDP 7

2.  Half of all NDP leaning voters vote PC to stop a Wildrose government from forming
Wildrose majority with 44 seats, PC 41, NDP 2

3.  Half of Liberal and half of NDP voters vote PC
PC majority at 45, Wildrose 40, NDP 2

4. 100% of Liberal voters toss their support behind the NDP
Still results in a Wildrose majority

5.  NDPers listen to Raj Sherman and toss all their support behind him
Still a Wildrose majority

So you can see from this that there are only two scenarios where Wildrose does NOT form a majority government.  Either Liberal voters swing in large numbers to the PCs, or both Liberal and NDP voters swing to the PCs.

So, given all this, and that a good 20% of those planning to vote are currently undecided, and of those, more are leaning toward the PCs, I am predicting a close Wildrose MINORITY government.  After looking at all this I still stand beside my original predictions for the Daveberta election prediction pool posted here.  

I will post how well all of these aligned with the actual results after the election as well as the results of my alternative election

I know, you can't contain your excitement.  It's okay.  I totally understand.

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